Politics

New poll has McCrory 9 points behind Cooper

featured_MccroryCooper

Aug. 25. From the “There’s a Website for Everything Department,” polls from Monmouth University got the highest A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight.com, a website that ranks the accuracy of polls from Gallup (B-) to NBC News/Wall Street Journal (A-).

Why the big buildup? Cooper’s lead is startling, but anything can happen this early in a race. The new Monmouth poll says HB2, the law regarding transgender public restrooms that many voters see harming the Tar Heel State’s image, appears to be a serious drag on Republican Pat McCrory’s bid for a second term as governor.

“McCrory is trying to take control of the HB2 debate with a new TV ad. As of right now, though, North Carolina voters feel it has hurt the state, which is helping Cooper’s bid to unseat the incumbent.”

-Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute

And there’s no telling how the I-77 toll controversy will affect McCrory in and around Lake Norman. WidenI-77.org founder Kurt Naas said he did not know how the toll controversy would affect McCrory.

In the contest for governor, Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper holds a significant 52 percent to 43 percent lead over incumbent Pat McCrory.  Another 3 percent say they will vote for Libertarian Lon Cecil and 3 percent are undecided.

Cooper has the support of 93 percent of Democratic voters, while McCrory gets the backing of 89 percent of Republicans.  Independents are divided at 47 percent for Cooper and 45 percent for McCrory.  Cooper has a net positive personal rating of 38 percent favorable and 18 percent unfavorable, with 44 percent expressing no opinion of him.  McCrory’s personal rating is more divided at 39 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable, with 20 percent having no opinion of him.

Importantly, Tar Heel voters are split on the incumbent’s performance as governor, with 45 percent approving of the job McCrory has done and 46 percent disapproving.  A key element in the governor’s rating is his support for House Bill 2 or HB2, the controversial law that prohibits local governments from allowing for transgender access to public restrooms.

A majority of voters (55 percent) say they disapprove of HB2 compared with fewer than four in 10 (36 percent) who approve of HB2.  Among voters who approve of the law, 74 percent are backing McCrory in the governor’s race. Among those who disapprove of it, 72 percent are voting for Cooper.

“McCrory is trying to take control of the HB2 debate with a new TV ad,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “As of right now, though, North Carolina voters feel it has hurt the state, which is helping Cooper’s bid to unseat the incumbent.”

The Monmouth University Poll found that 70 percent of voters feel the passage of HB2 has been bad for North Carolina’s reputation nationally.  Only 9 percent say it has been good for the state’s image and just 14 percent say it has had no impact.  Even among those who approve of the law itself, 41 percent say HB2 has been bad for the state’s reputation compared with 21 percent who say it has been good and 28 percent who say it has had no impact.

One leading GOP consultant in North Carolina did not put too much stock in the Monmouth poll. “I’ve glanced at the toplines in the Monmouth poll but the sample size was so small for a statewide survey that I frankly did not spend very much time reading it,” he said. Republican elected officials in Lake Norman say the toll issue remains divisive. Pro-toll electeds “couldn’t be elected dog-catcher” in Cornelius, one top vote-getter said.

Meanwhile, the presidential race in North Carolina is extremely tight with Hillary Clinton holding a negligible two-point lead over Donald Trump.  Incumbent U.S. Sen. Richard Burr has a similarly small two-point lead in his race for re-election.

Among North Carolina voters likely to cast ballots in November’s presidential election, 44 percent currently support Clinton and 42 percent back Trump.  Seven percent intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1 percent name another candidate, and 6 percent are undecided.

Trump does nearly as well as Clinton in getting the backing of partisans, with 86 percent of Republicans supporting their party’s nominee and 91 percent of Democrats backing their standard-bearer.  Independents prefer Trump (44 percent) over Clinton (30 percent), with 15 percent supporting Johnson.

Clinton leads by 63 points among black, Hispanic, and Asian-American voters (76 percent to 13 percent), while Trump leads by 23 points among white voters (54 percent to 31 percent).  In 2012, Barack Obama won nonwhite voters by 75 points, while Mitt Romney took the white vote by 37 points.  Trump is currently doing about equally well among white men (51 percent to 29 percent) and white women (56 percent to 33 percent), although he is losing white voters with a college degree by 39 percent to 43 percent for Clinton.  Trump maintains a sizable advantage among white voters without a college degree (66 percent to 22 percent).

“North Carolina has given us tight presidential races over the last two cycles, and this year appears to be no different,” said Murray.

“North Carolina has given us tight presidential races over the last two cycles, and this year appears to be no different,”

-Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute

Tar Heel voters give nearly identical ratings to the two major party nominees.  Just 34 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump and 54 percent have an unfavorable view, while 36 percent have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 52 percent have an unfavorable view.  The findings are similar when it comes to “looking out for the little guy.”  Only 40 percent say Trump would do a good job at this while 52 percent say he would do a bad job.  Likewise, just 42 percent say Clinton would do a good job looking out for the little guy while 49 percent say she would do a bad job.

Turning to the U.S. Senate race, GOP incumbent Richard Burr holds an insignificant 45 percent to 43 percent lead over former Democratic state legislator Deborah Ross.  Another 4 percent say they will vote for Libertarian Sean Haugh and 8 percent are undecided.  Burr has the support of 94 percent of Republicans while Ross has the backing of 89 percent of Democrats.  Independents prefer Burr by 46 percent to 31 percent.

Burr earns a largely positive job rating from North Carolina voters – 46 percent approve and 30 percent disapprove, with about one-quarter (24 percent) having no opinion of his performance.  Fewer voters have a personal opinion of their two-term senator, with 32 percent holding a favorable view and 21 percent having an unfavorable view of him personally, while 47 percent have no opinion.  Far fewer voters feel they know Ross, who earns a 23 percent favorable and 6 percent unfavorable personal rating, with 71 percent who have formed no opinion of her.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from Aug. 20-23, with 401 North Carolina residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, N.J. Monmouth has ranked among the Top 40 Regional Universities North for the past three years.

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Recent News

Uwharrie Bank LakeNorman.com